Market report

Key figures office market

Oslo

Prime Yield

3.25

Prime rent

4800

Office vacancy

6.9

Trondheim

Prime Yield

4.25

Prime rent

2500

Office vacancy

7.3

Stavanger

Prime Yield

4.75

Prime rent

3000

Office vacancy

12.5

Bergen

Prime Yield

3.75

Prime rent

3000

Office vacancy

8.2

Other segments

Q1 2021

TThe warehousing and logistics market appears to be one of the most attractive segments for many investors, and has, since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, strengthened its position relative to the alternatives. read more

Rental market – warehousing and logistics facilities

The results of our latest user survey among the largest warehouse and logistics players in Greater Oslo show a market in rapid growth. 8 out of 10 users of warehouse facilities have had revenue growth so far this year, and the majority report that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a positive effect on their operations. Overall, the market players we have spoken to expect they will need a total of 200 000 more square metres of warehouse space in Oslo and Akershus, which illustrates a growing industry. Much of this is already planned covered through extensions of existing premises and planned building projects, but several market players reported that they have also been in urgent need of more space.  The market players set strict requirements both in terms of the location and the quality of the warehouse, and as far as possible want to move into new builds. This is due to the fact that many people need special adaptations and large plots of land with opportunities to expand, and, not least, the location must be right. This makes it difficult for many market players to find suitable alternatives when looking at existing buildings. At the same time, many do not have the opportunity to wait for new builds.

Rental broker Sigurd Johannessen nevertheless reports that the market for existing buildings has been good in 2020, and that many companies have found themselves in urgent need of more space. We find that consumers’ shopping patterns are now really affecting the logistics needs of the suppliers. The fact that many players within online shopping, third-party logistics (3PL), home delivery, etc. do not have time to wait for new construction is symptomatic of the year. The demand these players are experiencing is so great that 5-year plans were realised in 2020. This development has increased the demand for existing buildings with a rapid takeover.

The top rental prices for existing buildings centrally located in Oslo are around NOK 1 400 per square metre per year, while the majority of existing warehouse premises in Oslo have rental prices ranging from NOK 950 to NOK 1 200 per square metre per year. The rental price level for newly built warehouse and logistics facilities outside Oslo is between NOK 800 and NOK 950 per square metre per year. There is a large range of rental levels for existing buildings outside Oslo, depending on the location and quality of the premises. We are expecting an increase in rental prices for the few warehouse premises that are available in Oslo. For warehouse premises outside Oslo, the prices are expected to remain stable.

 

Transaction market – warehousing and logistics

In the transaction market, 79 sales were completed in 2020, with a total value of more than NOK 21 billion. The market in Oslo and Akershus is by far the strongest, with completed sales in this market alone totalling more than NOK 12 billion  (2019:  NOK 4.3 billion). A large number of sales and sharp pricing confirm the attractiveness of this segment, and we could have seen a significantly higher number of sales if there had been more objects on offer. In 2020, the average value in Oslo and Akershus was almost 50 basis points lower than in 2019, and we have seen as many as 10 sales at a net yield below 5 per cent.

DNB Næringsmegling recently adjusted its estimate of prime yield in the segment, reducing it to 4.25 per cent (2019: 4.50 per cent).

Key figures warehousing and logistics facilities

Area The level of the rental prices NOK per sqm
Groruddalen 1000 - 1 400
Karihaugen 1 000 - 1 200
Berger 850 - 1 000
Gardermoen 750 - 900
Langhus 850 - 1 000
Vestby 750 - 900
The level of the rental prices NOK per sqm. Normally god warehouse property 6-12 meters ceiling height. Source DNB Næringsmegling
Prime Yield
4.50
Q1 2021

Many investors have long expressed concern about the retail trade segment, in particular pointing to increased online shopping, over-establishment of physical shops and changing shopping habits. This concern has grown in the times we are currently in, where parts of the retail trade segment are among the segments that are hit the hardest by the COVID-19 crisis. Many large companies have experienced strong growth in online shopping after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, but will the changes become permanent? read more

An important point to make here, is that there are huge differences between various retail trade segments. While parts of the retail trade industry, such as grocery shops and house/home/hobby suppliers are doing extremely well, other parts of the industry are struggling. Taking a geographical perspective, local retail trade has been very successful, whereas the effects of the pandemic have been far more palpable for retail trade in the city centres. In 2020 as a whole, however, Oslo is the only one of the country’s counties that has seen a negative rate of growth among shopping centres.

It is not easy to draw conclusions regarding the long-term effects of the COVID-19 outbreak in the transaction market, but as early as in 2019, we saw that the market had become considerably more selective. We believe this trend will be reinforced in the time ahead. Premises that offer secure, good cash flows, often on long-lease contracts, will hold their own. It may be more demanding for premises in less attractive locations.

This is also confirmed by the market, where the best objects attract a great deal of interest, whereas sales that involve a higher degree of risk are more of a challenge. In 2020, we registered 64 sales totalling NOK 12.2 billion, which is approximately on the same level as last year. There has nevertheless been a sharp decline in the sale of shopping centres, but a significant increase in the sales of both big box stores and grocery shops.

Key figures retail trade

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Online shopping (DIBS) 16% 16% 17% 13% 32%
Retail (Kvarud) 3,2% 1,9% 1,5% 1,8% 11,7%
Private consumption 1,4% 2,2% 1,9% 1,5% -7,6%*
Shopping centre sales (Kvarud, adjusted for shopping days and changes in area) 1,7% 1,9% 0,8% 0,5% 2,3%
Figures per September 2020, Source: Kvarud, Virke (Online shopping of the first half of 2020) and DNB Markets
*Estimate for the year 2020
Prime Yield
4.25
Q1 2021

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent shutdowns have greatly affected the hotel market. The Oslo and Gardermoen areas have been hit the hardest, but all the major Norwegian cities have seen a significant downturn. read more

For the country seen as a whole, the average price per hotel room in 2020 was reduced to NOK 965 per night (2019: NOK 997), while the occupancy rate fell to 32 per cent (2019:  60.7 per cent). However, there are major differences from city to city. For Norway’s capital, which is among the hardest hit, the achieved price per room per night in 2020 was NOK 910 (2019: NOK 1 091), while the occupancy rate fell to 26.6 per cent (2019:  68.8 per cent). This corresponds to a RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) of NOK 242 (2019: NOK 750).  The big question is how long this crisis is going to last, and how far-reaching the effects will be. Although we are moving towards a gradual reopening of society, several of the major tenants (included in our latest tenant survey) report that they believe their travel habits will be permanently changed. This could present challenges for the hotels that rely on a high proportion of business travellers, although day trips are expected to be cut the most.

In the transaction market, hotels were high on the wish list of a number of investors before the COVID-19 outbreak. However, this year’s investor survey shows, not surprisingly, that investors are now more sceptical about buying hotels. Nevertheless, many investors have both the willingness and the capital to invest, if there is a good deal to be made at a discount price.  In 2020, we registered 9 sales totalling NOK 2 billion in the hotel segment, which is approximately on the same level as last year.

Key figures hotels

Room rate RevPAR Occupancy rate
Norway 985 340 34,5 %
Oslo 933 287 30,7 %
Bergen 934 292 31,2 %
Trondheim 1 000 400 40,0 %
Stavanger 921 331 36,0 %
Prime Yield
5.00

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