Other segments
- Warehousing and logistics facilities
- Retail trade
- Hotels
Q3 2023
In the last two years alone, more than NOK 25 billion worth of warehouse and logistics properties have changed hands in the Oslo region. On the basis of the higher interest rates and changed market conditions, DNB Næringsmegling revised the prime yield in Oslo up to 4.75 per cent. read more
There are few good reference transactions among the highest priced properties, however. While some people are of the view that the prices in the segment are becoming rather stiff, a large proportion are very positive to the value development, also going forward. First and foremost, there is an expectation among investors that the high demand for warehouse properties will result in rental price growth in the coming years.
On the other hand, rental prices have risen sharply in recent years, which, during a period of heightened uncertainty, will somewhat reduce the upside in the short term. Figures from Arealstatistikk show that rental prices for category A (the 15 per cent most expensive rental contracts) are NOK 1 800 per square metre, indicating an increase of 11 per cent compared with the previous year. At the same time, we also see that the segment is interest-rate sensitive. Facilitators are named as buyers in close to 70 per cent of all the sales in Greater Oslo, which we also believe may affect both demand and prices in a period of increased interest rates.
In 2022 we registered sales worth approximately NOK 20 billion (including industrial properties). This is about the same share of the total market as in 2021, although total sales were then over NOK 36 billion.
DNB Næringsmegling considers the prime yield for warehouse and logistics properties to be 4.75 per cent. This indicates an 85 basis-point increase since the trough one year ago, but there have been very few sales in the market for prime warehouse properties over the past six months, and there is therefore more uncertainty than usual attached to the estimate.
Key figures warehousing and logistics facilities
| Area | The level of the rental prices NOK per sqm |
|---|---|
| Groruddalen | 1000 - 1 400 |
| Karihaugen | 1 000 - 1 200 |
| Berger | 850 - 1 000 |
| Gardermoen | 750 - 900 |
| Langhus | 850 - 1 000 |
| Vestby | 750 - 900 |
Prime Yield
4.75
Q3 2023
Our latest investor survey in Oslo shows that investors have become somewhat more selective about purchases of commercial properties for retail trade purposes and that they fear the consequences of a decline in private consumption. read more
For the year 2022, there was nevertheless considerable trade in both shopping centres and big-box properties, with the exception of Oslo. We see that the good commercial properties are attracting considerable attention from investors.
According to Kvarud Analyse, a firm that studies shopping centre trade, turnover at shopping centres increased by 0.9 per cent in 2022, adjusted for trading days and changes in floor space. Five counties saw a decline, with Viken seeing the largest decline, of 5.4 per cent, probably related to increased cross-border shopping. The biggest increase was in Oslo, of 7.8 per cent.
In 2022, we recorded commercial property transactions worth close to NOK 16 billion, corresponding to 17 per cent of the year’s transaction volume (the average for the last three years is 13 per cent). The year’s volume was significantly aided by Aurora Eiendom’s acquisitions throughout the year, which included Gulskogen shopping centre and Buskerud Storsenter, which are among the largest transactions of the year in the segment.
DNB Næringsmegling assesses the prime yield for commercial property in Oslo at 4.50 per cent (shopping centres).
Key figures retail trade
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Online shopping (DIBS) | 16% | 16% | 17% | 13% | 32% |
| Retail (Kvarud) | 3,2% | 1,9% | 1,5% | 1,8% | 11,7% |
| Private consumption | 1,4% | 2,2% | 1,9% | 1,5% | -7,6%* |
| Shopping centre sales (Kvarud, adjusted for shopping days and changes in area) | 1,7% | 1,9% | 0,8% | 0,5% | 2,3% |
Prime Yield
4.50
Q3 2023
Hotels have not experienced the same decline in yield as many other segments, and now demand has also picked up, which is attracting more investors to the segment. read more
The hotel market in Norway made a solid comeback in 2022, after a tough period during the pandemic. Nationally, the occupancy rate increased to 56.2 per cent (2021: 39.6 per cent), while the average price increased to NOK 688 per square metre (NOK 416 in 2021). The capital saw the sharpest upswing of the large cities, with an occupancy rate of 60.9 per cent (33.3 percent), and a RevPAR (revenue per available room) of NOK 823 per square metre (NOK 337 in 2021).
Our latest investor survey shows that investors are very tense about developments in the hotel market going forward, and about how a possible decline in private consumption will affect demand for hotel rooms. This is in great contrast to the previous survey, where the majority of respondents thought the hotel segment would be among those with the strongest value development.
In the transaction market, there was considerable interest in hotel property last year, and we registered eight hotel transactions amounting to just under NOK 3 billion for the year. (2021: NOK 3.5 billion). DNB Næringsmegling expects the prime yield for hotels to be 4.50 per cent.
Key figures hotels
| Room rate | RevPAR | Occupancy rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 985 | 340 | 34,5 % |
| Oslo | 933 | 287 | 30,7 % |
| Bergen | 934 | 292 | 31,2 % |
| Trondheim | 1 000 | 400 | 40,0 % |
| Stavanger | 921 | 331 | 36,0 % |
Prime Yield
4.5
