The warehousing and logistics segment has at times been among the most traded single segments in 2022 to date, illustrating that there is still great interest in this segment. read more
In the last two years alone, more than NOK 25 billion worth of warehouse and logistics properties have changed hands in the Oslo region. On the basis of the higher interest rates and changed market conditions, DNB Næringsmegling revised up the prime yield in Oslo to 4.50 per cent (3.90 per cent). However, there are few good reference transactions among the highest priced properties. While some are of the view that the prices in the segment are becoming rather stiff, a large proportion is very positive to the value development, also going forward. First and foremost, there is an expectation among investors that the high demand for warehouse properties will result in rental price growth in the coming years.
The results of our latest user survey within warehousing and logistics in Oslo show that 6 out of 10 expect to need more warehouse space in the next five years. The market players we’ve spoken to expect they will need a total of 150 000 more square metres of warehouse space in Oslo and Akershus, which is a reflection of a segment experiencing strong growth. The market players set strict requirements with regard to both the location of the warehouse and its qualities. This is due to the fact that many people need special adaptations and large plots of land with the opportunity to expand, and, not least, the location must be right. The majority are therefore of the view that new builds are the preferred option to the extent that they have time to wait.
In 2021, we registered sales in the segment totalling a record-high NOK 36 billion. This also includes a number of industrial properties and portfolios. The strongest market is in Greater Oslo, where turnover of more than NOK 17 billion has been registered.
So far this year (September), sales of warehousing and logistics properties (including industrial properties) have exceeded NOK 17 billion, corresponding to more than a quarter of everything that has been sold so far this year.
DNB Næringsmegling considers prime yield for warehousing and logistics to be 4.5 per cent.
|Area||The level of the rental prices NOK per sqm|
|Groruddalen||1000 - 1 400|
|Karihaugen||1 000 - 1 200|
|Berger||850 - 1 000|
|Gardermoen||750 - 900|
|Langhus||850 - 1 000|
|Vestby||750 - 900|
In the transaction market, interest in properties used for retail trade purposes was very good throughout 2021 and at the start of 2022. Not since 2018 has retail trade accounted for such a large share of the transaction market in Norway. read more
While early in the pandemic we saw a great demand for big box and groceries, in 2022 there has been broader interest among investors, and especially in local shopping centres. Nevertheless, our most recent investor survey of national investors in Oslo shows that there is increased uncertainty among investors when it comes to the segment, and in particular how interest rate hikes and other factors will affect private consumption in the months ahead.
Kvarud’s shopping centre index shows that shopping centres have experienced a turnover growth of 5.5 per cent (adjusted for trading days and area changes). Growth is greatest in Oslo and for urban centres. There has nevertheless been a decline through the summer months (-3 per cent June-August), and there’s a considerable sense of suspense associated with developments in the coming months, partly due to the interest rate hikes that we have been forewarned about.
We have registered transactions within retail trade amounting to NOK 11.5 billion so far this year (as of September). The volume is being pulled up significantly by Aurora’s purchases of shopping centres, which account for 4 of the 5 highest recorded retail trade transactions so far this year.
DNB Næringsmegling is considering an upward revision of its prime yield estimate to 4.50 per cent.
|Online shopping (DIBS)||16%||16%||17%||13%||32%|
|Shopping centre sales (Kvarud, adjusted for shopping days and changes in area)||1,7%||1,9%||0,8%||0,5%||2,3%|
Hotels have not experienced the same yield decline as many other segments, and now demand has also picked up, which means that more investors are interested in the segment. read more
In our recent investor survey targeting the major national investors, there is a clear mood shift compared with previous years. Many investors express increased uncertainty, both with regard to activity levels and pricing. The hotels segment is nevertheless one of the segments investors believe may have the strongest value development going forward. This is based on the fact that the segment has not had the same yield decline as, for example, offices and warehouses, as it was among the most affected segments during the pandemic. In addition, we see that demand for hotel rooms has picked up significantly in the first half of the year, and especially during the summer months.
The interest in hotels can also be seen in the transaction market. So far this year, we have registered eight hotel transactions worth almost NOK 3 billion. Because of this, hotels account for a somewhat higher proportion of transactions than we have seen for a number of years. By comparison, hotel property sales totalled NOK 3.5 billion for the whole of last year, which was also historically high. A number of the investors express both a willingness and a desire to buy hotels if the right objects become available, but we are nevertheless seeing an increased differentiation both in terms of the type of hotel and the geographical location than before.
DNB Næringsmegling assesses prime yield for hotels to be 4.50 per cent.
|Room rate||RevPAR||Occupancy rate|
|Trondheim||1 000||400||40,0 %|
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