Market report

Key figures office market

Oslo

Prime Yield

3.25

Prime rent

4800

Office vacancy

6.9

Trondheim

Prime Yield

4.25

Prime rent

2500

Office vacancy

8.5

Stavanger

Prime Yield

4.75

Prime rent

3000

Office vacancy

12.5

Bergen

Prime Yield

3.75

Prime rent

3000

Office vacancy

7.6

Other segments

Q3-2020

The warehouse and logistics market appears to be one of the most attractive segments for many investors, which after the coronavirus pandemic has strengthened against the alternatives. Our latest user survey among the largest users of warehouse space confirms the strong growth in the market. read more

The rental market – warehouse/logistics

The results of our latest user survey among the largest warehouse and logistics players in Greater Oslo indicate a market with strong growth. 8 out of 10 warehouse users have had revenue growth so far this year, and the majority say that the coronavirus pandemic has had a positive effect on their operations. In total, the players we have talked with expect to need 200 000 square metres more warehouse space in Oslo and Akershus, and that illustrates strong growth in the industry. Much of this space will be covered through planned expansions and new buildings, but more players also have an urgent need for more space. The players set strict requirements for both the location and quality of the warehouses and want as far as possible, to plan to move into new buildings. This is because many of the players need special adaptations and large plots with possibilities to expand, and, not least, the location must be right. This makes it difficult for many players to find good options among existing buildings, particularly if they have the opportunity to wait.

Rental agent Sigurd Johannessen nevertheless says that the market for existing buildings has been good in 2020, and that many now have an urgent need for more space. We find that the consumers’ shopping patterns are really starting to affect the providers’ logistics. Symptomatic for the year is that many players in e-commerce, 3PL, home delivery and the like, do not have time to wait for new construction projects. The demand these players are experiencing is so great that 5-year plans are now being realised during the course of 2020. This development has greatly increased the demand for existing buildings with rapid takeover.

Top rent in existing buildings with a central location in Oslo is approx. NOK 1 400 per square metre/year, while the main part of existing storage space in Oslo ranges from NOK 950 to NOK 1 200 per square metre/year. The rent level for newly built warehouse/logistics space in areas outside Oslo is in the range of NOK 800 to NOK 950 per square metre/year. There are large variations in the rent levels in existing buildings outside Oslo related to the location and quality of the property. We expect an increase in rental pric for the few warehouse options available in Oslo. For alternatives outside Oslo, a flat price development is expected.

The transaction market – warehouse/logistics

In the transaction market, 40 sales have been made so far this year, totalling more than NOK 11 billion. The market is strongest in Oslo and Akershus. Sales in this market alone amounted to NOK 9.4 billion (2019: NOK 4.3 billion). A high number of sales and high pricing confirm the attractiveness of the segment, where we could have seen significantly higher sales if the supply had been greater. On the buyer side, we see that the facilitators account for close to 70%. So far this year, the average sales in Oslo and Akershus is almost 50 basis points lower than in 2019, and we have seen as many as five sales with a net yield below 5%. In the autumn, DNB Næringsmegling downgraded the estimate for prime yield in the segment to 4.50% (4.75%).

Key figures warehouse and logistics

Area The level of the rental prices NOK per sqm
Groruddalen 1000 - 1 400
Karihaugen 1 000 - 1 200
Berger 850 - 1 000
Gardermoen 750 - 900
Langhus 850 - 1 000
Vestby 750 - 900
The level of the rental prices NOK per sqm. Normally god warehouse property 6-12 meters ceiling height. Source DNB Næringsmegling
Prime Yield
4.50
Q3-2020

Figures from the Enterprise Federation of Norway (Virke) show that e-commerce growth in Norway (as of July) has grown by 31.7 (7.8) per cent in 2020. Many of the large companies have experienced a strong e-commerce growth following the coronavirus outbreak, but will the changes be permanent? read more

Strong e-commerce growth in 2020

In recent months, many new user groups have been forced to shop both groceries and other things online, as they normally do in physical stores. The technical solutions are far better than they were just a few years ago, and many have probably had an aha experience with the potential for creating lasting trading habits. We further believe that the strong growth in home delivery can reinforce an underlying trend that people are concerned with simplicity and flexibility. The coronavirus outbreak can thus contribute to this trend going somewhat faster than we previously thought. On the other hand, we see that many of the e-commerce players are struggling to make money. According to Virke’s report, almost half of today’s e-commerce players have been struggling to make money from their business lately.

Big differences among shopping centres

So far this year (as of September), Norway’s shopping centres are showing a revenue growth of 2.2% adjusted for trading days and area changes, according to a quarterly analysis made by Kvarud Analyse. There are still large variations across counties and centre types. While the local centres have had a growth of 6.5% so far this year, we see a decline of 4.9% for the centres in the big cities. First of all, we see that people do more shopping locally. Home office solutions and recommendations to limit the use of public transport mean that we to a greater extent choose local options. Furthermore, many of the local centers have a higher proportion of necessities (groceries and more), which are among the areas that have had the strongest growth so far this year.

Key figures commerce

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Online shopping (DIBS) 16% 16% 17% 13% 32%
Retail (Kvarud) 3,2% 1,9% 1,5% 1,8% 11,7%
Private consumption 1,4% 2,2% 1,9% 1,5% -7,6%*
Shopping centre sales (Kvarud, adjusted for shopping days and changes in area) 1,7% 1,9% 0,8% 0,5% 2,3%
Figures per September 2020, Source: Kvarud, Virke (Online shopping of the first half of 2020) and DNB Markets
*Estimate for the year 2020
Prime Yield
4.25
Q3-2020

At the time of writing, the markets are characterised by the coronavirus outbreak, the oil price war and large fluctuations. It is expected that the figures of hotel industrys will be strongly affected well into the future, although there is still a lot of uncertainty related to both the duration and effect of the situation. read more

The year 2020 started off well for the hotels in the Norwegian cities, with good figures in both January and February. The collapse we saw in March, however, is something we have never seen before in history, and this has greatly affected the prices and occupancy of hotels. So far this year (August), the average price in Norway is NOK 985 (all of 2019: NOK 984), while occupancy has fallen to 34.5% (55.8%). However, there are large differences from city to city, and we saw, for example, that Kristiansand were almost fully booked all summer. As for the capital, the price achieved so far this year has been NOK 933 (2019: NOK 984), while occupancy has fallen to 30.7% (70.1%). This corresponds to a RevPAR of 287 (549). The big question is how long and extensive this crisis will be. Although there has been a gradual reopening of society, several companies report that they believe travel habits will change permanently, which could present challenges especially for hotels with a high proportion of business travellers.

In the transaction market, hotels have been high on the wish list of several investors before the coronavirus outbreak. However, this year’s investor survey shows, not surprisingly, that investors are now more hesitant when it comes to buying hotels. Nevertheless, many people have both the will and the capital to buy if good purchases can be made at a discount. While in 2019 eight hotels were sold for a total of NOK 2.4 billion, so far in 2020, we have registered sales amounting to about NOK 1 billion in the hotel segment.

Key figures hotels

Room rate RevPAR Occupancy rate
Norway 985 340 34,5 %
Oslo 933 287 30,7 %
Bergen 934 292 31,2 %
Trondheim 1 000 400 40,0 %
Stavanger 921 331 36,0 %
Prime Yield
5.00

About

Please allow location data, so we can show you relevant key figures and properties near you.

We will remember your data for thirty days. Your position is never stored.